Opposition Research
Opposition Research if done right, is ethical and powerful. Source: Terry Cooper. Opposition research can be great, but it is still only half of the total package. Your candidate still needs to communicate a POSITIVE PLATFORM. The positive platform is the number one priority. Winning campaigns solve problems and seize opportunities that affect the voters. The best campaign themes center on a subject of major importance to voters, where the opponent has a lousy record or platform and you have an excellent record or platform. Opposition research uncovers and analyzes opponent's public record. Explains in written reports precisely why your opponent should not be elected. Gather data that puts what your opponent did or didn't do in a manner that voters not only understand, but GRABS THEIR ATTENTION and convinces them to vote the way you want them to. Put info in a context that voters understand and relate to easily. Analysis of the data is critical. Does your candidate have a case to make against his/her oponent? Get data out of the public record. No dumpster diving. Oppostion Research is spread on a need to know basis. * Best disemenated via written reports. * Relate to candidate's qualifications and performance in the office. * Scrupulously accurate. * Balanced, fair and undistorted. * Brief, and recent. * Out of bounds items could backfire badly. * If opponent is killing himself, don't interfere. * Don't take things out of perspective. * An axe murder has a longer statute of limitations than a bounced check. * If opponent had a DUI 3 months ago, then his entire driving record back to age 16 becomes fair game. * If an issue didn't work before, it probably won't work this time, either. (clinton) Uses of opposition research. (Is it worth it?) 1. To help your candidate decide whether to run or not. 2. To provide a rationale for your own campaign. 3. To provide a theme for your campaign. : Campaigns need catchy themes. Must be an important issue where you are good and the opponent is bad. "Help is on the way" was used vs. Toricelli, but they changed opponents just before the election and it didn't work after that. Helps pollster to ask more focused questions. Push questions are not the same as a push poll. Push questions measure voters' interests. Mr/Mrs voter, candidate X says this. Candidate Y says that. Which view is closest to yours? Find an issue where over 60% agree with you. Suggested poll topics come from opposition research. If you pick the right issues, the rest of the campaign is pinpoint bombing. You then know what to talk about. You also know what to change the subject to. Opposition research identifies target constituencies. Who has the opponent benefited? Who has he alienated? Target the people your opponent has alienated. ex. Opponent sponsored a bill that hurt car dealers, so let them know. Opposition research helps you to write specific, targeted fundraising appeals. Opposion research provides material for the contrast and comparison parts of the campaign. Incorporate contrast into press releases, speeches, debates, joint appearances, brochures, billboards, direct mail, radio and tv ads. Opposition research persuades key people or groups to side with you. Possible contributors, endorsing organizations, media outlets. Opposition research is written to be persuasive to them. Show opposition research to newspaper editorial boards if they agree with you. Opposition Research identifies the opponent's campain team and how much they're spending on what. If opponent spent zero dollars on polling, then they haven't done any polling. Look at their reports. Are they running a ground or an air campaign? Oppositon research gives a nonincumbent candidate the confidence they need to engage their incumbent opponents on substantive issues. Opposition research gives detailed info to challengers. Opposition research must be orderly, systematic and planned or you will miss someone. Research the office. This is often overlooked and can cause gaffes. Governors differ in each states. Some have no vetoes. Don't say that your opponent doesn't use the veto pen if he isn't permitted to veto anything. Look in state constitution. Legislators can add to the duties of a governor. Look for mandatory reports that have to be filed by the governor by law. Research your own candidate. With his approval. Is your own candidate electable? Find out what is important to voters. Crime and illegal drugs are usually impt. But don't research crime if the voters don't care about that issue. Spend time on an issue that they care about. 4. Researgh the opponent. 5. summarize your findings in writing. 6. Pollster tests your findings in a poll to see what resonates. 7. Campaign team decides which issues to focus on in the campaign. 8. Gather all the details about the issues selected and put them in a written report. A governor's race will focus on 3-4 issues at most. If your campaign focuses on 9 issues, then the voters will hear zero issues. Must stay focused and on-message. 9. Scrutinize for total accuracy and fairness ALL communicatins that use your research. The campaign team may change your wording and accidentally decrease the accuracy. Other OR duties. 1. continue to follow the opponent. See if he does more stupid things. 2. OR can help write the policy platform. 3, Help write the campaign press kit? 4. Suggest debate quesions, esp when candidates question each other. You must prepare for a 'say something nice about your opponent' type questin. Say 3 nice things. Be generous. Those who benefitted from your opponent's good deeds will also benefit from your good deeds, so they have no dog in the fight and are neutralized. 5. Help prepare candidates for meetings with interest groups. 6. help answer questionaires. 7. Dissect the opponent's communications for truth or falsity. HOw to research the electorate if no money for polls? How to find out which issues will resonate with voters? Talk to knowledgeable people in the district. look, listen, smell Newspaper and Radio polls (unscientific but very useful) surveys from previous campaigns. demographic data and other data. talk to people who ran statewide before. Talk radio- listen to it. Disregard the regular callers. Good tactic Look thru old local papers. See what happened 9 months before the last election. What were the hot issues then? ex) pollsaid that crime, drugs and potholes were hot issues back then. HOw did the mayor do on crime, drugs and potholes during his term? Look in the city budget. The budget is a statement about priorities. Budget showed that Mayor decreased money for cops on beat. Then look in uniform crime reports for the city. They found cops decreased, crime increased and drug arrests increased. Look at potholes also. Street maint was decr by 85%. Potholes got much worse over mayor's term. These 2 issues were uncovered from a newspaper poll taken over 4 yrs ago. Much demographic data in US census. Median age in state. Young or old state? Poor or wealthy state? State may have major regions that are different. truism- No matter what data you are looking for, there's someone in govt, academia or a think tank whose job is to collect the data. Your task is to simply find that person and they'll probably mail the stuff to you. It may take several calls and telephone tag with several people. Research your own candidate. find out his strengths and weaknesses. You may be able to fix your own candidate's problems with corrective action before it is too late. Need your candidate's permission to research himself. All is fair game when researching your own candidate. Sexual history, driving, alcohol, drugs, military, credit , employment. Put yourself in the position of an unscrupulous opponent so that you know all there is to know. If you candidate says NO, then LEAVE. ex) a family values candidate gave a Corvette to a woman half his age who is not a relative. Look for the 11 deadly sins of the incumbent. If it looks like he........ 1. thinks he is above the law. The rules that govern us don't apply to him. 2. In office to enrich himself. 3. his votes are for sale. 4. takes obscene advantage of perks of office. 5. (most common) ignors or works against the important interests of his district. 6. it looks like he is a lonely extremist. 7. Thumbs his nost at the voters' beliefs. (disagree disarmingly rather than argue with the voters to avoid this) 8 broken campaign promises. 9. lied to voters. 10. looks like he is inert. 11. looks like he is in over his head. examples. Promised to vote for term limits and to never raise taxes. First day in office he voted against term limits and he raised taxes 4 times. He only got 33% of the vote the second time, and lost. The winning campaign theme was these two things, plus a positive vision. Opponent says that he sponsored a bill, even though he voted against it. (this happens often) Inert- bad attendance. Few bills or amendments offered. 11 sins- failure to live up to basic common sense standards of behavior. You won't win by showing that your candidate is slightly more reasonable and slightly brighter than the opponent. You need a clear-cut advantage, something blatantly stupid to show the voters. Senator violated HOV lanes, drove by himself, was pulled over and claimed immunity. Scandals and highway contract kickbacks. Votes to increase value of stock portfolio. Union PACs supported him a lot. Opponent voted against textile imports because no textile plants in district. Unions didn't support him next time, but he barely won. Then he voted for import restrictions. But this is a flip flop and flipflop becomes an issue. Pa. legislators are allowed to lease a car to get to the capitol. One rep. leased a Mercedes. The opponent ran a photo of that Mercedes in every ad. Some politicians love to be lone voice on a 99 to1 issue. Look for the ones which will upset the district's voters the most. Things to research- campaign promises, profiles and bios. financial disclosure. stocks and bonds conflicts with duties of office. Lobbyist paid vacatins. debts and judgements in court. attendance. floor votes , which committees and subcommittes. How the opponent used discretionary time? Look for patterns until you can predict the opponent's actions. If there is no pattern, then they are a flip-flopper. Look for curious timing. Which would you rather find out about, 50 bad votes, or one bribe???? Put them on the record early and often. Question them on hot issues early, before they are prepared. Also tape it. Tape his speeches to the True Believers. Questionaire strategy. Candidates are inundated with questionaires. Put pressure on opponent to reveal his answers to a special interest group questionaire. Who has more right to know, the voters or the special interest group? If behind badly in polls, focus on your POSITIVE MESSAGE. If you are in the race, then do OR. Some info seems damaging but it is misinformation. If it sounds very damaging, then you must check it out even more thoroughly. Get much verification by 3-4 witnesses and by records.